Africa is on track to become the most dynamic emerging market in global civil aviation. Although its overall share of passenger traffic remains modest, the continent’s growth trajectory is being driven by the rebound in tourism, the rise of a middle class, and the gradual liberalization of air markets.
According to the latest projections from the Airports Council International (ACI), the number of air travelers in Africa is expected to reach 273 million by 2025—an impressive annual increase of 9.4%, the highest growth rate of any region. This surge will be fueled in particular by the expansion of the tourism industry in North Africa and the growing demand from the emerging middle class.
A Small Share in a Rapidly Expanding Market
Despite this exceptional growth rate, Africa will still represent only a small portion of the global aviation market, accounting for 2.7% of total passenger traffic.
ACI forecasts that global passenger traffic will reach 9.8 billion in 2025, a 3.7% increase compared with the previous year. The regional breakdown of this massive total is as follows:
- Asia-Pacific: 3.6 billion passengers (+5.6%), led by South and Southeast Asia.
- Europe: Over 2.5 billion passengers (+3.6%).
- North America: 2.1 billion passengers.
- Latin America/Caribbean: 789 million passengers (+4.1%).
- Middle East: 466 million passengers (+5.9%).
Stable Prospects for Developing Markets
These estimates are based on the strong rebound of global aviation following the Covid-19 pandemic. However, ACI notes that global forecasts remain tempered by certain uncertainties. Mature markets such as East Asia, Europe, and North America face challenges including demographic aging and shifts in travel behavior linked to visa policies and economic volatility.
Emerging markets—among them Africa—are expected to enjoy more sustained long-term growth in the decades ahead. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) projects that passenger traffic on the African continent will grow by an average of 4.1% per year over the next 20 years.
It is worth noting, however, that the majority of intra-African air traffic is not operated by local airlines. According to the African Airlines Association (AFRAA), African carriers transported only about 98 million passengers in 2024, underscoring the relatively small share of regional traffic handled by operators based on the continent.
