Africa is set to experience a substantial acceleration in its trade activity next year. According to the latest update of the Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report from the World Trade Organization (WTO), the continent’s export and import movements are now projected at levels well above earlier estimates.
An Upward Revision of the Figures
The WTO has sharply revised its 2025 forecasts, now expecting African exports to grow by 5.3% and imports by 11.8%. These figures mark a dramatic improvement compared to the previous April projections of just 0.6% and 6.5%, respectively.
This positive momentum stems from the strength of trade flows observed in the first half of the year, despite global trade tensions triggered by rising U.S. tariffs.
With projected import growth of 11.8%, Africa is expected to record the highest import growth rate in the world, outpacing regions such as South America (+8.8%) and Asia (+5.7%). This trend reflects the gradual recovery of domestic demand and renewed investment across several African nations.
However, the WTO strikes a note of caution, stressing that this upswing remains fragile amid a global environment marked by political uncertainty and mounting protectionism.
Services Trade Growing More Modestly
In contrast, Africa’s services trade is expected to expand at a slower pace. The WTO report forecasts a modest 1.3% rise in African services exports in 2025, following a stronger 4.9% increase in 2024. A mild recovery to 2.1% is projected for 2026.
Nonetheless, countries that have made significant strides in digitalization — such as Kenya, Egypt, and Nigeria — are likely to benefit from the continued expansion of information technology and telecommunications services.
Global Trade Outlook
Globally, merchandise trade is expected to grow by 2.4% in 2025 before slowing to 0.5% in 2026. The WTO warns that this improvement could prove short-lived if persistent risks tied to protectionism and sluggish global growth materialize.
